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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GamerLegionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 30 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 30 games
57%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
77%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pma · 22 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 21 game
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 21 game
52%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 20 games
55%

GamerLegion

Chen
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 17 games
59%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Speeed · 16 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 14 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 13 games
38%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 12 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bignum · 11 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Speeed · 10 games
80%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 10 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
624 picks · 960 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
515 picks · 432 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
462 picks · 629 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
438 picks · 984 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
428 picks · 467 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 516 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
418 picks · 259 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
394 picks · 662 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 51%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total80% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:12
Natus Vincere 66%GamerLegion 34%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 32:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangergotthejuice
47% · 155 games49% · 149 games
ViperRCY
Viper
Bristleback
Bristlebackpma
53% · 144 games48% · 111 games
KezYamSun
Kez
Puck
PuckNiku
51% · 245 games51% · 342 games
SlardarFayde
Slardar
Jakiro
JakiroRiddys
49% · 343 games49% · 38 games
TechiesSpeeed
Techies
Hoodwink
HoodwinkZayac
52% · 149 games51% · 396 games
Shadow ShamanBignum
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct28:17
Natus Vincere 66%GamerLegion 34%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 44:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordgotthejuice
51% · 88 games53% · 107 games
ViperRCY
Viper
Largo
Largopma
43% · 79 games44% · 161 game
SvenYamSun
Sven
Puck
PuckNiku
52% · 390 games54% · 100 games
Night StalkerFayde
Night Stalker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkZayac
50% · 124 games53% · 493 games
JakiroSpeeed
Jakiro
Warlock
WarlockRiddys
47% · 432 games52% · 252 games
Shadow ShamanBignum
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 80%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2