Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO1
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 1:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Brameloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Shadow Demon
Heaven · 30 games
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 28 games
Dark Willow
Heaven · 20 games
Hoodwink
Heaven · 20 games
Abaddon
Lodine · 19 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Heaven · 19 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Lodine · 19 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 18 games
Brame
Nature's Prophetsignature
SkyLark · 17 games
Weaveroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
Marssignature
SkyLark · 15 games
Lunasignature
Nefrit · 14 games
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 13 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Nefrit · 12 games
Earth Spiritsignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 11 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
375 picks · 545 bans
Bane
347 picks · 262 bans
Snapfire
339 picks · 207 bans
Weaver
330 picks · 715 bans
Monkey King
252 picks · 757 bans
Tidehunter
241 picks · 383 bans
Disruptor
239 picks · 154 bans
Io
236 picks · 571 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 59%
Hero pool strength57% Brame
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total57% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:17
Nemiga Gaming 44%Brame 56%
The model gave 56% on Brame — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 37:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerAinkrad
MedusaNefrit
LifestealerKiritych
KunkkaW1sh-
MarsTheChosenOne
ViperSkyLark
Shadow DemonHeaven
Spirit BreakerCTOMAHEH1
Dark WillowLodine
Jakirodark
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 57%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1