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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO1
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:1
V-Gamingwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Heaven · 30 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 28 games
36%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 20 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 20 games
45%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Lodine · 19 games
53%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Heaven · 19 games
47%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Lodine · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 18 games
50%

V-Gaming

Lina
Linasignature
hAze · 37 games
62%
Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 31 game
61%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 26 games
65%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 26 games
77%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
hAze · 24 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Malady · 22 games
59%
Weaver
Weaversignature
ArrOw · 22 games
68%
Puck
Pucksignature
hAze · 21 game
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
375 picks · 546 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
346 picks · 262 bans
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
339 picks · 207 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
329 picks · 715 bans
57%
Monkey King
Monkey King
252 picks · 756 bans
56%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
241 picks · 384 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
239 picks · 153 bans
51%
Io
Io
236 picks · 570 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 59%
Hero pool strength57% V-Gaming
Head-to-head8 – 2
Model total61% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:28
Nemiga Gaming 42%V-Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 28:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinKiritych
44% · 67 games51% · 24 games
Naga SirenTA2000
Naga Siren
Lycan
LycanTheChosenOne
50% · 62 games52% · 91 game
Queen of PainhAze
Queen of Pain
Puck
PuckAinkrad
53% · 147 games46% · 74 games
Night Stalkerlaise
Night Stalker
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerHeaven
53% · 70 games53% · 157 games
MiranaArrOw
Mirana
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeLodine
45% · 127 games51% · 127 games
Baneantoha
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 61%
Series resultV-Gaming 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1