Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO1
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Bramewin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Shadow Demon
Heaven · 30 games
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 28 games
Dark Willow
Heaven · 20 games
Hoodwink
Heaven · 20 games
Abaddon
Lodine · 19 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Heaven · 19 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Lodine · 19 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 18 games
Brame
Weaveroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
SkyLark · 16 games
Marssignature
SkyLark · 15 games
Lunasignature
Nefrit · 14 games
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 13 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Nefrit · 12 games
Earth Spiritsignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 11 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
375 picks · 546 bans
Bane
346 picks · 262 bans
Snapfire
339 picks · 207 bans
Weaver
329 picks · 714 bans
Monkey King
252 picks · 755 bans
Tidehunter
241 picks · 384 bans
Disruptor
239 picks · 153 bans
Io
235 picks · 570 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% Brame
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total55% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:43
Nemiga Gaming 53%Brame 47%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Brame in 49:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetKiritych
Phantom AssassinNefrit
BeastmasterAinkrad
TinkerW1sh-
AxeTheChosenOne
ViperSkyLark
IoHeaven
Dark WillowSsaSpartan
LionLodine
Spirit BreakerCTOMAHEH1
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 55%
Series resultBrame 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1