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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO1
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 1:0
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:0
V-Gamingloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Heaven · 29 games
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 28 games
36%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 20 games
45%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Lodine · 19 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 19 games
37%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Heaven · 19 games
47%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Lodine · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 18 games
50%

V-Gaming

Lina
Linasignature
hAze · 36 games
61%
Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 31 game
61%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 26 games
65%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 26 games
77%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
hAze · 24 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Malady · 22 games
59%
Weaver
Weaversignature
ArrOw · 22 games
68%
Puck
Pucksignature
hAze · 21 game
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
373 picks · 546 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
343 picks · 263 bans
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
338 picks · 207 bans
46%
Weaver
Weaver
328 picks · 712 bans
57%
Monkey King
Monkey King
252 picks · 754 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
241 picks · 153 bans
51%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
241 picks · 384 bans
47%
Io
Io
235 picks · 568 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 60%
Hero pool strength58% V-Gaming
Head-to-head7 – 2
Model total62% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:13
Nemiga Gaming 41%V-Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 38:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenKiritych
52% · 27 games55% · 137 games
TerrorbladeTA2000
Terrorblade
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAinkrad
41% · 99 games49% · 136 games
Storm SpirithAze
Storm Spirit
Kunkka
KunkkaTheChosenOne
44% · 119 games59% · 74 games
Spirit Breakerlaise
Spirit Breaker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonHeaven
51% · 133 games64% · 99 games
BaneArrOw
Bane
Dark Willow
Dark WillowLodine
42% · 111 games46% · 43 games
Silencerantoha
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 62%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1