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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Yandexloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 31 game
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Tims · 26 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Skem · 24 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Yopaj · 23 games
65%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 22 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
Force · 21 game
71%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Force · 20 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MikSa` · 20 games
45%

Team Yandex

Tusk
Tusksignature
Malady · 32 games
66%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 31 game
77%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 25 games
60%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
45%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 21 game
81%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 21 game
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
79%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Watson · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
620 picks · 959 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
512 picks · 429 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
460 picks · 625 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
435 picks · 981 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
425 picks · 467 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
421 picks · 515 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
418 picks · 257 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 661 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 61%
Hero pool strength58% Team Yandex
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total53% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:8
OG 48%Team Yandex 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by OG in 28:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritYopaj
50% · 443 games48% · 194 games
MorphlingWatson
Morphling
Windranger
WindrangerNatsumi
41% · 332 games57% · 106 games
RazorChira JUNIOR
Razor
Primal Beast
Primal BeastForce
51% · 124 games49% · 185 games
KunkkaNoticed
Kunkka
Chen
ChenSkem
59% · 180 games48% · 472 games
TinySaksa
Tiny
Tusk
TuskTims
46% · 538 games51% · 660 games
JakiroMalady
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed28:12
OG 49%Team Yandex 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by OG in 32:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzNatsumi
53% · 117 games52% · 519 games
Dragon KnightWatson
Dragon Knight
Tiny
TinyYopaj
52% · 427 games49% · 417 games
BeastmasterChira JUNIOR
Beastmaster
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerForce
49% · 421 game52% · 268 games
AxeNoticed
Axe
Jakiro
JakiroTims
50% · 606 games50% · 91 game
MiranaMalady
Mirana
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSkem
40% · 141 game53% · 417 games
Shadow DemonSaksa
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 53%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2