?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:1
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:1
X3loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 20 games
50%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 15 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 15 games
93%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 15 games
47%
Chen
Chensignature
Zayac · 12 games
83%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 12 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Muka · 12 games
75%
Lion
Lion
Zayac · 11 games
55%

X3

Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 6 games
50%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
DarkLord^ · 5 games
40%
Bane
Bane
Kidaro · 4 games
0%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 3 games
33%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
67%
Lina
Linaoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 3 games
33%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Antares · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
369 picks · 544 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
340 picks · 260 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
338 picks · 207 bans
46%
Weaver
Weaver
321 picks · 712 bans
56%
Monkey King
Monkey King
252 picks · 750 bans
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
245 picks · 384 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
238 picks · 153 bans
52%
Io
Io
235 picks · 559 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 33%
Hero pool strength65% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:46
Hydra 71%X3 29%
The model gave 71% on Hydra — the game was taken by X3 in 50:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerKami
45% · 21 game53% · 79 games
Faceless VoidDarkLord^
Faceless Void
Invoker
InvokerAskold
50% · 77 games44% · 31 game
Skywrath MageAntares
Skywrath Mage
Kunkka
KunkkaBlizzy
54% · 57 games42% · 35 games
RikiNattyNarwhal
Riki
Weaver
WeaverMuka
49% · 122 games52% · 199 games
BaneKidaro
Bane
Clockwerk
ClockwerkZayac
51% · 67 games
Game 2prediction correct38:7
Hydra 71%X3 29%
The model gave 71% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 32:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeKami
49% · 74 games52% · 107 games
Phantom AssassinDarkLord^
Phantom Assassin
Puck
PuckAskold
50% · 125 games57% · 83 games
Spirit BreakerAntares
Spirit Breaker
Kunkka
KunkkaBlizzy
46% · 74 games44% · 65 games
Outworld DestroyerNattyNarwhal
Outworld Destroyer
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMuka
47% · 75 games53% · 139 games
DisruptorKidaro
Disruptor
Elder Titan
Elder TitanZayac
46% · 46 games
Game 3prediction correct47:14
Hydra 68%X3 32%
The model gave 68% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 31:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaKami
47% · 95 games49% · 33 games
TinkerNattyNarwhal
Tinker
Mars
MarsBlizzy
46% · 152 games47% · 116 games
DoomDarkLord^
Doom
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAskold
47% · 90 games55% · 143 games
RazorAntares
Razor
Disruptor
DisruptorZayac
53% · 86 games54% · 270 games
BaneKidaro
Bane
Weaver
WeaverMuka
49% · 139 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 84%
Series resultHydra 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3