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Huya Winter Invitational 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team SMGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
ELeVeN · 16 games
56%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
ELeVeN · 15 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Dy · 14 games
71%
Lion
Lion
Pyw · 12 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Dy · 11 games
64%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
poyoyo · 11 games
55%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Pyw · 11 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 10 games
50%

Team SMG

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Roddgeee · 20 games
70%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
AhFu · 20 games
80%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 19 games
63%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 15 games
80%
Lion
Lionsignature
Roddgeee · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Roddgeee · 15 games
80%
Lina
Linasignature
Moon · 13 games
77%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
MidOne · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
372 picks · 542 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
340 picks · 261 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
338 picks · 207 bans
46%
Weaver
Weaver
321 picks · 714 bans
56%
Monkey King
Monkey King
252 picks · 751 bans
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
245 picks · 384 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
238 picks · 153 bans
52%
Io
Io
235 picks · 559 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength57% Team SMG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:21
Vici Gaming 38%Team SMG 62%
The model gave 62% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 39:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinpoyoyo
45% · 87 games59% · 103 games
Wraith KingMidOne
Wraith King
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainXm
44% · 96 games48% · 123 games
LinaMoon
Lina
Slardar
SlardarIrving
59% · 35 games54% · 59 games
EarthshakerAhFu
Earthshaker
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerVictoria
33% · 35 games59% · 143 games
WeaverRoddgeee
Weaver
Rubick
RubickYds
45% · 175 games
Game 2prediction missed38:20
Vici Gaming 40%Team SMG 60%
The model gave 60% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 32:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith Kingpoyoyo
54% · 124 games59% · 170 games
Templar AssassinMidOne
Templar Assassin
Void Spirit
Void SpiritXm
45% · 185 games43% · 172 games
Queen of PainMoon
Queen of Pain
Death Prophet
Death ProphetIrving
48% · 154 games51% · 179 games
Shadow DemonAhFu
Shadow Demon
Pangolier
PangolierYds
48% · 150 games49% · 229 games
AbaddonRoddgeee
Abaddon
Bane
BaneVictoria
54% · 137 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 65%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2