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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantastic Fiveloss 1:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Empirewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fantastic Five

Mars
Marsoften banned
Actor · 14 games
36%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
jAMES · 13 games
31%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
jAMES · 11 games
64%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 11 games
36%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Askold · 10 games
40%
Puck
Pucksignature
Askold · 10 games
60%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Malr1ne · 9 games
11%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Ark · 9 games
56%

Team Empire

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 27 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ghostik · 26 games
42%
Lina
Linaoften banned
kiyotaka · 23 games
52%
Bane
Bane
Kaori · 20 games
40%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
lightless · 18 games
50%
Luna
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 17 games
65%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Shisui · 15 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Kaori · 14 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
372 picks · 545 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
338 picks · 260 bans
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
336 picks · 207 bans
46%
Weaver
Weaver
318 picks · 715 bans
56%
Monkey King
Monkey King
253 picks · 750 bans
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
244 picks · 384 bans
46%
Disruptor
Disruptor
237 picks · 153 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
235 picks · 331 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total59% Fantastic Five
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:13
Fantastic Five 55%Team Empire 45%
The model gave 55% on Fantastic Five — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 32:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMalr1ne
49% · 145 games53% · 76 games
Phantom Assassinlightless
Phantom Assassin
Kunkka
KunkkaArk
49% · 130 games42% · 104 games
Queen of PainIceberg
Queen of Pain
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerSuperNova
48% · 92 games50% · 67 games
Dark SeerGhostik
Dark Seer
Disruptor
DisruptorKingR
52% · 133 games57% · 129 games
WeaverKaori
Weaver
51% · 124 games
Nyx Assassin[T]SA
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed31:35
Fantastic Five 54%Team Empire 46%
The model gave 54% on Fantastic Five — the game was taken by Team Empire in 41:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSuperNova
57% · 189 games47% · 98 games
Phantom Assassinlightless
Phantom Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
43% · 165 games46% · 38 games
EnigmaGhostik
Enigma
Razor
RazorArk
52% · 125 games48% · 253 games
PuckIceberg
Puck
Hoodwink
HoodwinkKingR
47% · 111 games50% · 111 games
Monkey King[T]SA
Monkey King
57% · 90 games
BaneKaori
Bane
Game 3prediction missed15:36
Fantastic Five 53%Team Empire 47%
The model gave 53% on Fantastic Five — the game was taken by Team Empire in 38:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeArk
51% · 133 games49% · 103 games
Wraith Kinglightless
Wraith King
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMalr1ne
41% · 203 games58% · 123 games
BeastmasterGhostik
Beastmaster
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerSuperNova
41% · 99 games52% · 104 games
BatriderIceberg
Batrider
Disruptor
DisruptorKingR
54% · 154 games55% · 135 games
Weaver[T]SA
Weaver
52% · 124 games
GrimstrokeKaori
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteFantastic Five · 59%
Series resultTeam Empire 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3