Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantastic Fiveloss 0:2series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CIS Rejectswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fantastic Five
Hoodwink
jAMES · 13 games
Marsoften banned
Actor · 13 games
Dark Willowsignature
jAMES · 11 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 11 games
Batrideroften banned
Askold · 10 games
Pucksignature
Askold · 10 games
Linaoften banned
Malr1ne · 8 games
Lunasignature
Ark · 8 games
CIS Rejects
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
370 picks · 545 bans
Bane
337 picks · 260 bans
Snapfire
336 picks · 206 bans
Weaver
318 picks · 713 bans
Monkey King
254 picks · 751 bans
Tidehunter
244 picks · 384 bans
Disruptor
236 picks · 153 bans
Ember Spirit
236 picks · 331 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 83%
Hero pool strength53% CIS Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total78% CIS Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:36
Fantastic Five 22%CIS Rejects 78%
The model gave 78% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by CIS Rejects in 37:00.
Game 2prediction correct10:29
Fantastic Five 22%CIS Rejects 78%
The model gave 78% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by CIS Rejects in 22:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteCIS Rejects · 78%
Series resultCIS Rejects 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2