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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Brameloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 20 games
50%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 14 games
71%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 14 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 13 games
100%
Chen
Chensignature
Zayac · 12 games
83%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 11 games
82%
Lion
Lion
Zayac · 11 games
55%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Muka · 11 games
73%

Brame

Mars
Marsoften banned
SkyLark · 14 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SkyLark · 14 games
71%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 14 games
57%
Lina
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 13 games
54%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Nefrit · 12 games
50%
Luna
Lunasignature
Nefrit · 12 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
70%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
372 picks · 547 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
339 picks · 261 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
337 picks · 206 bans
46%
Weaver
Weaver
317 picks · 716 bans
56%
Monkey King
Monkey King
255 picks · 758 bans
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
247 picks · 385 bans
46%
Disruptor
Disruptor
237 picks · 154 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
236 picks · 332 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% Hydra
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:22
Hydra 53%Brame 47%
The model gave 53% on Hydra — the game was taken by Brame in 32:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckAskold
48% · 192 games49% · 160 games
MedusaNefrit
Medusa
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordKami
51% · 75 games50% · 106 games
Nature's ProphetSkyLark
Nature's Prophet
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBlizzy
63% · 114 games47% · 150 games
KunkkaW1sh-
Kunkka
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMuka
47% · 99 games43% · 194 games
WeaverCTOMAHEH1
Weaver
Bane
BaneZayac
52% · 181 game51% · 51 game
SilencerSsaSpartan
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed36:4
Hydra 50%Brame 50%
The model gave 50% on Brame — the game was taken by Hydra in 35:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorKami
46% · 107 games61% · 117 games
Templar AssassinW1sh-
Templar Assassin
Pugna
PugnaAskold
38% · 21 game48% · 72 games
Nature's ProphetSkyLark
Nature's Prophet
Kunkka
KunkkaBlizzy
46% · 75 games53% · 44 games
SlardarNefrit
Slardar
Rubick
RubickMuka
43% · 106 games56% · 113 games
EnchantressSsaSpartan
Enchantress
Elder Titan
Elder TitanZayac
49% · 102 games55% · 65 games
Outworld DestroyerCTOMAHEH1
Outworld Destroyer
Game 3prediction correct38:26
Hydra 53%Brame 47%
The model gave 53% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 36:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverKami
53% · 102 games48% · 172 games
KunkkaNefrit
Kunkka
Invoker
InvokerAskold
46% · 138 games49% · 194 games
Ember SpiritW1sh-
Ember Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBlizzy
58% · 108 games45% · 50 games
VenomancerSkyLark
Venomancer
Monkey King
Monkey KingMuka
52% · 153 games53% · 12 games
WarlockSsaSpartan
Warlock
Disruptor
DisruptorZayac
51% · 87 games48% · 160 games
Earth SpiritCTOMAHEH1
Earth Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 54%
Series resultHydra 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3