European Pro League Season 34 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Lynxloss 2:3series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:3
Winter Bearwin 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 25 games
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 16 games
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 15 games
Sand King
mellojul · 14 games
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 13 games
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 13 games
Abaddonoften banned
7jesu · 11 games
Winter Bear
Shadow Demonsignature
Delight · 13 games
Tusksignature
waveformn · 10 games
Marssignature
fortniteMan · 9 games
Phoenixsignature
Delight · 9 games
Gyrocoptersignature
zuyzyan · 8 games
Marcisignature
waveformn · 8 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Panda · 7 games
Invokersignature
Panda · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
616 picks · 960 bans
Tusk
515 picks · 424 bans
Centaur Warrunner
461 picks · 624 bans
Shadow Demon
434 picks · 975 bans
Tiny
422 picks · 465 bans
Dragon Knight
420 picks · 516 bans
Warlock
418 picks · 256 bans
Mars
394 picks · 538 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% Winter Bear
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total66% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:31
Team Lynx 59%Winter Bear 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 46:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend7jesu
Kezzuyzyan
BrewmasterVladikTheHtiviy
PuckPanda
Primal Beastmellojul
BatriderfortniteMan
Treant Protectorkreker
PhoenixDelight
RingmasterQBFY
Tinywaveformn
Game 2prediction missed13:30
Team Lynx 56%Winter Bear 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 35:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight7jesu
Shadow Fiendzuyzyan
LargoVladikTheHtiviy
RazorfortniteMan
Storm Spiritmellojul
HuskarPanda
Warlockkreker
Marciwaveformn
Nyx AssassinQBFY
JakiroDelight
Game 3prediction correct44:34
Team Lynx 58%Winter Bear 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 51:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver7jesu
Kezzuyzyan
TimbersawVladikTheHtiviy
InvokerPanda
Keeper of the Lightmellojul
BatriderfortniteMan
Jakirokreker
Tinywaveformn
Nyx AssassinQBFY
PhoenixDelight
Game 4prediction correct38:27
Team Lynx 60%Winter Bear 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 46:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver7jesu
Kezzuyzyan
Puckmellojul
Dragon KnightPanda
TimbersawVladikTheHtiviy
BatriderfortniteMan
Jakirokreker
Ringmasterwaveformn
Nyx AssassinQBFY
LargoDelight
Game 5prediction missed28:40
Team Lynx 58%Winter Bear 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 59:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Lightmellojul
Lifestealerzuyzyan
Muerta7jesu
Ember SpiritPanda
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
RazorfortniteMan
LionQBFY
Tinywaveformn
Jakirokreker
PhoenixDelight
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 66%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5