Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
CIS Rejectswin 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Empireloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CIS Rejects
No games played over 6 months.
Team Empire
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 27 games
Marsoften banned
Ghostik · 26 games
Linaoften banned
kiyotaka · 22 games
Bane
Kaori · 20 games
Kunkkaoften banned
lightless · 18 games
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 17 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Shisui · 15 games
Disruptor
Kaori · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
370 picks · 546 bans
Bane
337 picks · 258 bans
Snapfire
335 picks · 205 bans
Weaver
316 picks · 714 bans
Monkey King
253 picks · 760 bans
Tidehunter
248 picks · 383 bans
Ember Spirit
236 picks · 333 bans
Disruptor
235 picks · 154 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)82% vs 35%
Hero pool strength52% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% CIS Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:11
CIS Rejects 83%Team Empire 17%
The model gave 83% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by Team Empire in 25:11.
Game 2prediction missed22:29
CIS Rejects 83%Team Empire 17%
The model gave 83% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by Team Empire in 32:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteCIS Rejects · 83%
Series resultCIS Rejects 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2