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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Secretloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Boxi · 8 games
50%
Luna
Lunasignature
MATUMBAMAN · 7 games
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Boxi · 7 games
43%
Lina
Linaoften banned
miCKe · 6 games
33%
Razor
Razoroften banned
qojqva · 6 games
50%
Bane
Bane
iNSaNiA · 5 games
80%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 5 games
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Boxi · 5 games
60%

Team Secret

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
YapzOr · 10 games
80%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
YapzOr · 8 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Puppey · 7 games
86%
Magnus
Magnussignature
zai · 7 games
71%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Puppey · 7 games
57%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Puppey · 6 games
67%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
YapzOr · 6 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
369 picks · 545 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
335 picks · 258 bans
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
335 picks · 204 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
316 picks · 714 bans
56%
Monkey King
Monkey King
253 picks · 757 bans
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
247 picks · 383 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
236 picks · 331 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
235 picks · 154 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total56% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:35
Team Liquid 49%Team Secret 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 59:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackMATUMBAMAN
55% · 64 games50% · 163 games
LunaNisha
Luna
Invoker
InvokermiCKe
56% · 179 games48% · 93 games
Queen of PainSumaiL
Queen of Pain
Razor
Razorzai
53% · 175 games46% · 123 games
Beastmastericeiceice
Beastmaster
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyverniNSaNiA
52% · 147 games40% · 123 games
IoPuppey
Io
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinBoxi
56% · 280 games45% · 343 games
LionYapzOr
Lion
Game 2prediction correct21:35
Team Liquid 44%Team Secret 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 41:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorMATUMBAMAN
48% · 181 game60% · 227 games
Templar AssassinNisha
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckmiCKe
49% · 464 games49% · 517 games
Marsiceiceice
Mars
Tidehunter
Tidehunterzai
46% · 343 games44% · 403 games
Void SpiritSumaiL
Void Spirit
Io
IoiNSaNiA
49% · 196 games57% · 228 games
MiranaYapzOr
Mirana
Lion
LionBoxi
41% · 373 games56% · 182 games
BanePuppey
Bane
Game 3prediction correct24:22
Team Liquid 51%Team Secret 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 52:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkamiCKe
55% · 100 games38% · 43 games
Shadow FiendNisha
Shadow Fiend
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzai
61% · 117 games42% · 74 games
Doomiceiceice
Doom
Slardar
SlardarMATUMBAMAN
62% · 44 games43% · 164 games
Storm SpiritSumaiL
Storm Spirit
Mirana
MiranaBoxi
56% · 143 games45% · 164 games
AbaddonPuppey
Abaddon
Bane
BaneiNSaNiA
54% · 153 games43% · 112 games
IoYapzOr
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 56%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3