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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYwin 2:0
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
X3loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheBloodySky · 7 games
29%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
25%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Copy · 4 games
25%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
0%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
75%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
jAMES · 4 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 4 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
TheBloodySky · 3 games
0%

X3

Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 6 games
50%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
DarkLord^ · 5 games
40%
Bane
Bane
Kidaro · 3 games
0%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
67%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Antares · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 3 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Kidaro · 2 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
371 picks · 546 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
336 picks · 259 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
335 picks · 204 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
317 picks · 714 bans
56%
Monkey King
Monkey King
253 picks · 759 bans
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
247 picks · 385 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
237 picks · 154 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
236 picks · 331 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 36%
Hero pool strength53% X3
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:16
IVY 46%X3 54%
The model gave 54% on X3 — the game was taken by IVY in 36:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinLowskill
47% · 72 games48% · 108 games
MedusaDarkLord^
Medusa
Void Spirit
Void SpiritCopy
47% · 184 games43% · 159 games
LinaNattyNarwhal
Lina
Night Stalker
Night StalkerTheBloodySky
55% · 65 games42% · 70 games
HoodwinkAntares
Hoodwink
Rubick
RubickjAMES
53% · 126 games65% · 110 games
BaneKidaro
Bane
Game 2prediction missed49:33
IVY 46%X3 54%
The model gave 54% on X3 — the game was taken by IVY in 49:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidLowskill
51% · 92 games51% · 73 games
TerrorbladeDarkLord^
Terrorblade
Batrider
BatriderCopy
46% · 97 games58% · 131 game
Void SpiritNattyNarwhal
Void Spirit
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerjAMES
38% · 38 games45% · 10 games
Skywrath MageAntares
Skywrath Mage
Night Stalker
Night StalkerTheBloodySky
52% · 51 game49% · 64 games
EnchantressKidaro
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 60%
Series resultIVY 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2