DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
GamerLegionloss 0:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Execrationwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GamerLegion
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 17 games
Jakirosignature
Speeed · 16 games
Warlock
Speeed · 13 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 12 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 12 games
Clockwerksignature
Bignum · 11 games
Batridersignature
Speeed · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 10 games
Execration
Snapfire
Shanks · 29 games
Marssignature
Tino- · 26 games
Tusk
Shanks · 23 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 20 games
Axeoften banned
Tino- · 19 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 19 games
Puckoften banned
Bob · 16 games
Disruptor
cml · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
613 picks · 958 bans
Tusk
515 picks · 422 bans
Centaur Warrunner
457 picks · 623 bans
Shadow Demon
433 picks · 971 bans
Tiny
419 picks · 465 bans
Dragon Knight
416 picks · 514 bans
Warlock
415 picks · 254 bans
Ember Spirit
392 picks · 658 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% GamerLegion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% GamerLegion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:33
GamerLegion 54%Execration 46%
The model gave 54% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by Execration in 43:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ViperYamSun
KezPalos
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
PuckBob
Void SpiritRCY
SlardarTino-
MuertaBignum
WindrangerShanks
TechiesSpeeed
Witch Doctorcml
Game 2prediction missed21:26
GamerLegion 52%Execration 48%
The model gave 52% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by Execration in 40:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckRCY
Dragon KnightPalos
RazorYamSun
Ember SpiritBob
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
DawnbreakerTino-
DazzleSpeeed
Jakirocml
Dark WillowBignum
TuskShanks
Model check result
Model favoriteGamerLegion · 54%
Series resultExecration 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2