Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
5RATFORCESTAFFwin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
5ManMidasloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5RATFORCESTAFF
Medusaoften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 5 games
Bane
Overlom · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
red2 · 3 games
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 3 games
Dark Seeroften banned
TingleK1ng · 2 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
TingleK1ng · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
red2 · 2 games
Snapfire
bgod · 2 games
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
367 picks · 538 bans
Bane
331 picks · 253 bans
Snapfire
325 picks · 200 bans
Weaver
311 picks · 694 bans
Monkey King
255 picks · 751 bans
Tidehunter
245 picks · 387 bans
Disruptor
237 picks · 151 bans
Ember Spirit
230 picks · 327 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 43%
Hero pool strength60% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:20
5RATFORCESTAFF 78%5ManMidas 22%
The model gave 78% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 35:54.
Game 2prediction correct38:28
5RATFORCESTAFF 78%5ManMidas 22%
The model gave 78% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 42:12.
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 78%
Series result5RATFORCESTAFF 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2