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OGA Dota PIT EU/CIS Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Secretloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 19 games
84%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 17 games
76%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Miposhka · 16 games
63%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Collapse · 16 games
81%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 16 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
60%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 14 games
71%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 14 games
71%

Team Secret

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
YapzOr · 9 games
78%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
YapzOr · 8 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Puppey · 7 games
86%
Magnus
Magnussignature
zai · 7 games
71%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Puppey · 6 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 6 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
YapzOr · 6 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Puppey · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
366 picks · 536 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
330 picks · 251 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
324 picks · 200 bans
46%
Weaver
Weaver
310 picks · 694 bans
55%
Monkey King
Monkey King
254 picks · 749 bans
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
244 picks · 387 bans
46%
Disruptor
Disruptor
237 picks · 151 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
229 picks · 326 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total79% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:15
Team Spirit 68%Team Secret 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 36:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverYatoro
42% · 106 games60% · 118 games
RazorNisha
Razor
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
46% · 127 games46% · 139 games
Doomiceiceice
Doom
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
54% · 80 games49% · 91 game
WindrangerSumaiL
Windranger
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMira
45% · 155 games54% · 166 games
IoPuppey
Io
Tidehunter
TidehunterMiposhka
51% · 183 games54% · 137 games
ClockwerkYapzOr
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed12:38
Team Spirit 65%Team Secret 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Secret in 51:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckTORONTOTOKYO
44% · 305 games63% · 215 games
Templar AssassinNisha
Templar Assassin
Morphling
MorphlingYatoro
42% · 141 game49% · 176 games
Queen of PainSumaiL
Queen of Pain
Mars
MarsCollapse
42% · 362 games47% · 387 games
SnapfirePuppey
Snapfire
Monkey King
Monkey KingMira
52% · 199 games61% · 222 games
Elder Titaniceiceice
Elder Titan
Lion
LionMiposhka
47% · 391 game54% · 398 games
Nyx AssassinYapzOr
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction correct35:12
Team Spirit 65%Team Secret 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYatoro
56% · 60 games47% · 108 games
UrsaNisha
Ursa
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerCollapse
56% · 50 games48% · 74 games
Queen of PainSumaiL
Queen of Pain
Invoker
InvokerTORONTOTOKYO
48% · 104 games52% · 62 games
Ogre Magiiceiceice
Ogre Magi
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMira
46% · 126 games57% · 35 games
EnigmaYapzOr
Enigma
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMiposhka
47% · 61 game49% · 122 games
BanePuppey
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 79%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3