Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Gorillaz-Pridewin 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Inverseloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gorillaz-Pride
Snapfire
d1smar · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Cara · 3 games
Disruptor
Genek · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
TaO · 2 games
Linaoften banned
TaO · 2 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
NaoG · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Cara · 2 games
Tusk
Genek · 2 games
Inverse
Gyrocopteroften banned
Slaw · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Migi · 3 games
Medusaoften banned
Adrx · 3 games
Centaur Warrunner
ArzenT · 2 games
Earth Spirit
MonHty · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Migi · 2 games
Hoodwink
MonHty · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Migi · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
364 picks · 533 bans
Bane
329 picks · 250 bans
Snapfire
321 picks · 200 bans
Weaver
308 picks · 689 bans
Monkey King
254 picks · 745 bans
Tidehunter
244 picks · 388 bans
Disruptor
237 picks · 150 bans
Ember Spirit
229 picks · 323 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% Gorillaz-Pride
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total59% Gorillaz-Pride
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:12
Gorillaz-Pride 56%Inverse 44%
The model gave 56% on Gorillaz-Pride — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 28:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SniperNaoG
Queen of PainMigi
LinaTaO
GyrocopterAdrx
TimbersawCara
TidehunterArzenT
Hoodwinkd1smar
SnapfireMonHty
TuskGenek
Witch DoctorSlaw
Game 2prediction correct35:24
Gorillaz-Pride 56%Inverse 44%
The model gave 56% on Gorillaz-Pride — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 33:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaTaO
LunaAdrx
ClinkzNaoG
AxeArzenT
BeastmasterCara
Void SpiritMigi
Hoodwinkd1smar
MiranaMonHty
TuskGenek
Ogre MagiSlaw
Model check result
Model favoriteGorillaz-Pride · 59%
Series resultGorillaz-Pride 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2