Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Mind Gamesloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Lion
RodjER · 5 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
V-Tune · 4 games
Puckoften banned
No[o]ne · 4 games
Sand Kingoften banned
GeneRaL · 4 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
RodjER · 4 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
SoNNeikO · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
V-Tune · 3 games
Silenceroften banned
Solo · 3 games
Mind Games
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
364 picks · 532 bans
Bane
327 picks · 252 bans
Snapfire
323 picks · 200 bans
Weaver
307 picks · 690 bans
Monkey King
254 picks · 745 bans
Tidehunter
245 picks · 387 bans
Disruptor
236 picks · 150 bans
Ember Spirit
229 picks · 323 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 29%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:23
Natus Vincere 66%Mind Games 34%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Mind Games in 39:55.
Game 2prediction correct34:11
Natus Vincere 66%Mind Games 34%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 31:25.
Game 3prediction correct37:15
Natus Vincere 66%Mind Games 34%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 41:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 66%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3