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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 30 games
37%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 29 games
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 21 game
38%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 20 games
45%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Lodine · 20 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 20 games
55%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Lodine · 18 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Heaven · 18 games
44%

B8 Esports

Lina
Linasignature
[T]SA · 26 games
65%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 26 games
42%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 25 games
64%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Watson · 22 games
59%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Watson · 16 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Dendi · 16 games
25%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Yuma · 12 games
17%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Watson · 12 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
367 picks · 532 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
327 picks · 253 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
323 picks · 200 bans
46%
Weaver
Weaver
307 picks · 691 bans
55%
Monkey King
Monkey King
257 picks · 748 bans
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
245 picks · 388 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
237 picks · 151 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
230 picks · 323 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 30%
Hero pool strength52% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total77% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:11
Nemiga Gaming 66%B8 Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinKiritych
40% · 75 games48% · 71 game
KunkkaDendi
Kunkka
Death Prophet
Death ProphetAinkrad
52% · 95 games56% · 90 games
Razorv1olent-
Razor
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainTheChosenOne
59% · 90 games45% · 91 game
BloodseekerpJonn
Bloodseeker
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerHeaven
60% · 60 games41% · 74 games
Dark WillowLagoona
Dark Willow
Visage
VisageVANSKOR
50% · 6 games
Game 2prediction correct28:15
Nemiga Gaming 65%B8 Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 37:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeKiritych
43% · 58 games54% · 155 games
Razorv1olent-
Razor
Invoker
InvokerAinkrad
49% · 76 games43% · 10 games
PudgeDendi
Pudge
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerTheChosenOne
50% · 32 games51% · 81 game
Legion CommanderpJonn
Legion Commander
Monkey King
Monkey KingHeaven
59% · 78 games49% · 154 games
IoLagoona
Io
Lion
LionVANSKOR
46% · 156 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 77%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2