Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
simply TOOBASEDloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Mirana
Thiolicor · 17 games
Marsoften banned
Tavo · 12 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Costabile · 10 games
Dragon Knight
Tavo · 9 games
Svenoften banned
Costabile · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
KJ · 8 games
Invokeroften banned
4dr · 8 games
Iooften banned
KJ · 8 games
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
370 picks · 532 bans
Bane
328 picks · 252 bans
Snapfire
324 picks · 198 bans
Weaver
309 picks · 692 bans
Monkey King
260 picks · 750 bans
Tidehunter
245 picks · 392 bans
Disruptor
237 picks · 151 bans
Ember Spirit
232 picks · 322 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 19%
Hero pool strength52% simply TOOBASED
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:8
Evil Geniuses 87%simply TOOBASED 13%
The model gave 87% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 25:25.
Game 2prediction missed6:25
Evil Geniuses 87%simply TOOBASED 13%
The model gave 87% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 28:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 87%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2