Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Snapfiresignature
YapzOr · 8 games
Enchantresssignature
Puppey · 7 games
Magnussignature
zai · 7 games
Monkey Kingsignature
YapzOr · 7 games
Ogre Magisignature
Puppey · 6 games
Elder Titan
Puppey · 5 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
iceiceice · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 5 games
Nigma Galaxy
Lunaoften banned
iLTW · 10 games
Marsoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
Iooften banned
GH · 5 games
Linaoften banned
Miracle- · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
iLTW · 5 games
Timbersawoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 5 games
Tusk
GH · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
Miracle- · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
370 picks · 530 bans
Bane
327 picks · 249 bans
Snapfire
321 picks · 196 bans
Weaver
311 picks · 686 bans
Monkey King
258 picks · 751 bans
Tidehunter
245 picks · 392 bans
Disruptor
235 picks · 150 bans
Ember Spirit
231 picks · 322 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 30%
Hero pool strength63% Team Secret
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total74% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:55
Team Secret 65%Nigma Galaxy 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 40:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingNisha
DoomMiracle-
Necrophosiceiceice
Queen of PainiLTW
InvokerSumaiL
KunkkaMinD_ContRoL
Monkey KingYapzOr
ClockwerkGH
SnapfirePuppey
BaneKuroKy
Game 2prediction missed16:25
Team Secret 64%Nigma Galaxy 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 38:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingNisha
MedusaMiracle-
PuckSumaiL
Dark SeerMinD_ContRoL
Spirit Breakericeiceice
Queen of PainiLTW
RubickYapzOr
Earth SpiritGH
IoPuppey
BaneKuroKy
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 74%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2