Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
CIS Rejectswin 2:1series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:1
IVYloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CIS Rejects
No games played over 6 months.
IVY
Marsoften banned
TheBloodySky · 6 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Copy · 4 games
Medusaoften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
jAMES · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 4 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Lowskill · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Copy · 3 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
TheBloodySky · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
369 picks · 528 bans
Bane
327 picks · 249 bans
Snapfire
321 picks · 196 bans
Weaver
310 picks · 685 bans
Monkey King
258 picks · 749 bans
Tidehunter
245 picks · 392 bans
Disruptor
235 picks · 150 bans
Ember Spirit
230 picks · 322 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)81% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% CIS Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% CIS Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:35
CIS Rejects 85%IVY 15%
The model gave 85% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by IVY in 48:40.
Game 2prediction missed27:34
CIS Rejects 85%IVY 15%
The model gave 85% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by IVY in 39:39.
Game 3prediction missed42:28
CIS Rejects 85%IVY 15%
The model gave 85% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by IVY in 41:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteCIS Rejects · 85%
Series resultCIS Rejects 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3