Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Tickleswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Team Tickles
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
369 picks · 531 bans
Bane
327 picks · 248 bans
Snapfire
320 picks · 196 bans
Weaver
311 picks · 685 bans
Monkey King
258 picks · 752 bans
Tidehunter
245 picks · 395 bans
Disruptor
234 picks · 150 bans
Ember Spirit
230 picks · 323 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)26% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Alliance
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:23
Alliance 40%Team Tickles 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 25:45.
Game 2prediction correct29:32
Alliance 40%Team Tickles 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 50:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 60%
Series resultTeam Tickles 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2