Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Entitywin 1:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 1:0
No Bounty Hunterloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
No Bounty Hunter
Grimstroke
Nikolica · 3 games
Marsoften banned
BliNcc · 3 games
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Flash · 2 games
Dark Seeroften banned
BliNcc · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Yellow Flash · 2 games
Lycanoften banned
Lowskill · 2 games
Snapfire
dEsire · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
368 picks · 532 bans
Bane
327 picks · 249 bans
Snapfire
320 picks · 195 bans
Weaver
311 picks · 685 bans
Monkey King
260 picks · 754 bans
Tidehunter
246 picks · 395 bans
Disruptor
234 picks · 150 bans
Ember Spirit
230 picks · 325 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 25%
Hero pool strength56% Entity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 86%
Series resultEntity 1:0
Series predictioncorrect