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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Motivate.Trust Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Fbz · 19 games
74%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Tims · 14 games
79%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 14 games
79%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Skem · 13 games
85%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 13 games
69%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Palos · 11 games
73%
Io
Iosignature
Skem · 11 games
73%
Lion
Lionsignature
Hyde · 11 games
73%

Motivate.Trust Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
Q · 24 games
75%
Medusa
Medusasignature
JaCkky · 13 games
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Fearless · 11 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Fearless · 10 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
JaCkky · 10 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Q · 10 games
80%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
JaCkky · 8 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
Q · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
366 picks · 532 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
326 picks · 247 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
321 picks · 195 bans
46%
Weaver
Weaver
311 picks · 684 bans
56%
Monkey King
Monkey King
261 picks · 750 bans
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
246 picks · 396 bans
46%
Disruptor
Disruptor
234 picks · 150 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
229 picks · 324 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total70% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:25
BOOM Esports 62%Motivate.Trust Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 48:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYopaj
48% · 109 games50% · 132 games
LifestealerJaCkky
Lifestealer
Riki
RikiTino-
45% · 37 games57% · 250 games
Ember SpiritFearless
Ember Spirit
Mars
MarsFbz
45% · 350 games56% · 320 games
PangolierQ
Pangolier
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSkem
42% · 193 games55% · 237 games
Miranaboombell
Mirana
Lion
LionTims
46% · 250 games
Game 2prediction correct27:11
BOOM Esports 67%Motivate.Trust Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 35:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death ProphetYopaj
53% · 102 games49% · 133 games
LunaJaCkky
Luna
Razor
RazorTino-
54% · 78 games43% · 104 games
ViperFearless
Viper
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerFbz
51% · 48 games52% · 65 games
Spirit BreakerQ
Spirit Breaker
Enchantress
EnchantressSkem
48% · 80 games51% · 123 games
Ioboombell
Io
Pangolier
PangolierTims
50% · 117 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 70%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2