Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
496 Gamingloss 1:2series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ragdollwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
496 Gaming
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Bombi · 4 games
Grimstroke
Bombi · 3 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
NARMAN · 3 games
Clockwerk
Bombi · 2 games
Earth Spirit
NARMAN · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
xsilearn · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Red · 2 games
Snapfire
Bombi · 2 games
Ragdoll
Terrorbladesignature
vtFαded · 6 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Ahjit · 4 games
Lion
Yif · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Gy · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
Gy · 3 games
Bane
Azrael · 2 games
Clockwerk
Azrael · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Gy · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
363 picks · 534 bans
Bane
326 picks · 247 bans
Snapfire
322 picks · 196 bans
Weaver
309 picks · 683 bans
Monkey King
262 picks · 751 bans
Tidehunter
246 picks · 398 bans
Disruptor
235 picks · 150 bans
Ember Spirit
230 picks · 323 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 73%
Hero pool strength61% Ragdoll
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Ragdoll
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:15
496 Gaming 30%Ragdoll 70%
The model gave 70% on Ragdoll — the game was taken by 496 Gaming in 27:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageGhost
Drow RangervtFαded
Ember Spiritxsilearn
Queen of PainAhjit
MarsRed
Legion CommanderGy
GrimstrokeOhaiyo
LionYif
Dark WillowBombi
UndyingAzrael
Game 2prediction correct7:34
496 Gaming 30%Ragdoll 70%
The model gave 70% on Ragdoll — the game was taken by Ragdoll in 23:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinGhost
Drow RangervtFαded
Razorxsilearn
KunkkaAhjit
MarsRed
PangolierGy
Dark WillowBombi
WeaverYif
UndyingOhaiyo
Ogre MagiAzrael
Game 3prediction correct22:53
496 Gaming 30%Ragdoll 70%
The model gave 70% on Ragdoll — the game was taken by Ragdoll in 40:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinGhost
Queen of PainAhjit
Puckxsilearn
Drow RangervtFαded
MarsRed
Ogre MagiAzrael
Dark WillowBombi
PangolierGy
UndyingOhaiyo
WeaverYif
Model check result
Model favoriteRagdoll · 82%
Series resultRagdoll 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3