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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DogChampwin 2:1
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Feltloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team DogChamp

Abaddon
Abaddon
Bloody Nine · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
lukiluki · 6 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
yarintheslayer · 5 games
80%
Rubick
Rubick
yarintheslayer · 4 games
25%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Bloody Nine · 2 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 2 games
100%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
lukiluki · 2 games
50%
Lion
Lion
yarintheslayer · 2 games
0%

Felt

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Zore · 7 games
43%
Bane
Bane
Steelborco · 3 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Kom4rt · 3 games
33%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
solji · 3 games
33%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Zore · 3 games
0%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Steelborco · 2 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Zore · 2 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Steelborco · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
363 picks · 536 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
327 picks · 246 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
323 picks · 196 bans
46%
Weaver
Weaver
309 picks · 682 bans
55%
Monkey King
Monkey King
265 picks · 755 bans
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
247 picks · 403 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
235 picks · 150 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
232 picks · 322 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total72% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:37
Team DogChamp 63%Felt 37%
The model gave 63% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 44:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerStoneBank
58% · 41 game42% · 84 games
Phantom AssassinKom4rt
Phantom Assassin
Pangolier
Pangolierlukiluki
55% · 103 games43% · 118 games
Invokersolji
Invoker
Weaver
Weaveryarintheslayer
56% · 97 games42% · 89 games
KunkkaZore
Kunkka
Bane
BaneBloody Nine
56% · 93 games51% · 43 games
SilencerShoe
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed22:44
Team DogChamp 62%Felt 38%
The model gave 62% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Felt in 41:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeStoneBank
48% · 84 games49% · 76 games
Phantom AssassinKom4rt
Phantom Assassin
Mars
Marslukiluki
55% · 211 games43% · 116 games
Leshracsolji
Leshrac
Techies
Techiesyarintheslayer
56% · 8 games46% · 75 games
AxeZore
Axe
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiBloody Nine
56% · 33 games53% · 69 games
UndyingShoe
Undying
Game 3prediction correct30:26
Team DogChamp 60%Felt 40%
The model gave 60% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 32:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeStoneBank
50% · 99 games58% · 72 games
Templar Assassinsolji
Templar Assassin
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightyarintheslayer
54% · 58 games48% · 70 games
Wraith KingKom4rt
Wraith King
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderlukiluki
45% · 65 games47% · 26 games
Spirit BreakerZore
Spirit Breaker
Jakiro
JakiroBloody Nine
44% · 26 games49% · 80 games
DisruptorShoe
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 72%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3