?
arrow_backBack to match
OGA Dota PIT EU/CIS Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Liquidloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Topson · 10 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Saksa · 10 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ceb · 8 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
SumaiL · 8 games
88%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Topson · 8 games
38%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Topson · 7 games
57%
Lion
Lion
Saksa · 7 games
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Saksa · 7 games
86%

Team Liquid

Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Boxi · 7 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Boxi · 6 games
50%
Razor
Razoroften banned
qojqva · 6 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Taiga · 5 games
40%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
miCKe · 5 games
80%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Boxi · 5 games
60%
Bane
Bane
iNSaNiA · 4 games
75%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
361 picks · 536 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
326 picks · 244 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
322 picks · 196 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
309 picks · 680 bans
55%
Monkey King
Monkey King
264 picks · 755 bans
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
247 picks · 403 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
235 picks · 150 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
231 picks · 320 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 70%
Hero pool strength50% OG
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total54% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:11
OG 49%Team Liquid 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by OG in 28:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaYuragi
48% · 207 games52% · 174 games
TerrorbladeMATUMBAMAN
Terrorblade
Batrider
Batriderbzm
53% · 133 games52% · 202 games
LinamiCKe
Lina
Night Stalker
Night StalkerATF
42% · 108 games47% · 349 games
Marszai
Mars
Lion
LionMisha
51% · 410 games52% · 252 games
SnapfireBoxi
Snapfire
Io
IoTaiga
54% · 180 games46% · 61 game
UndyingiNSaNiA
Undying
Game 2prediction correct25:42
OG 48%Team Liquid 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 38:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorYuragi
52% · 86 games49% · 153 games
LunaMATUMBAMAN
Luna
Batrider
Batriderbzm
47% · 113 games52% · 74 games
Outworld DestroyermiCKe
Outworld Destroyer
Mars
MarsATF
42% · 234 games52% · 61 game
Spirit Breakerzai
Spirit Breaker
Jakiro
JakiroMisha
44% · 30 games53% · 201 game
MiranaBoxi
Mirana
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinTaiga
51% · 130 games56% · 104 games
BaneiNSaNiA
Bane
Game 3prediction correct39:21
OG 51%Team Liquid 49%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 42:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzYuragi
51% · 31 game49% · 147 games
LunaMATUMBAMAN
Luna
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
51% · 163 games48% · 89 games
Queen of PainmiCKe
Queen of Pain
Razor
RazorATF
53% · 118 games50% · 34 games
Outworld Destroyerzai
Outworld Destroyer
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinTaiga
55% · 141 game49% · 149 games
Monkey KingBoxi
Monkey King
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernMisha
49% · 83 games44% · 117 games
IoiNSaNiA
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 54%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3