Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantastic Fiveloss 0:2series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CIS Rejectswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fantastic Five
Hoodwink
jAMES · 13 games
Marsoften banned
Actor · 12 games
Dark Willowsignature
jAMES · 11 games
Batrideroften banned
Askold · 10 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 10 games
Pucksignature
Askold · 9 games
Linaoften banned
Malr1ne · 8 games
Mirana
Muka · 8 games
CIS Rejects
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
361 picks · 535 bans
Bane
322 picks · 244 bans
Snapfire
321 picks · 195 bans
Weaver
306 picks · 677 bans
Monkey King
262 picks · 754 bans
Tidehunter
247 picks · 402 bans
Disruptor
234 picks · 150 bans
Ember Spirit
230 picks · 320 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 80%
Hero pool strength54% CIS Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% CIS Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:26
Fantastic Five 21%CIS Rejects 79%
The model gave 79% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by CIS Rejects in 36:07.
Game 2prediction correct18:39
Fantastic Five 21%CIS Rejects 79%
The model gave 79% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by CIS Rejects in 40:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteCIS Rejects · 79%
Series resultCIS Rejects 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2