?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Sparking Arrow Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Sparking Arrow Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
XCJ · 8 games
50%
Razor
Razoroften banned
MS · 8 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Son GoKu · 7 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Son GoKu · 7 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
XCJ · 6 games
83%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Dstones · 6 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Flyby · 6 games
50%
Axe
Axe
Son GoKu · 4 games
25%

Xtreme Gaming

Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pyw · 4 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dy · 4 games
75%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Paparazi · 4 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Srf · 4 games
100%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Paparazi · 4 games
100%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Pyw · 4 games
75%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Another · 4 games
75%
Bane
Bane
Dy · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
362 picks · 534 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
322 picks · 193 bans
47%
Bane
Bane
318 picks · 247 bans
59%
Weaver
Weaver
305 picks · 675 bans
55%
Monkey King
Monkey King
261 picks · 754 bans
58%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
249 picks · 401 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
232 picks · 150 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
231 picks · 319 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength58% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:32
Sparking Arrow Gaming 44%Xtreme Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 35:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerMS
42% · 29 games59% · 40 games
Shadow FiendPaparazi
Shadow Fiend
Doom
DoomFlyby
48% · 57 games55% · 83 games
RazorAnother
Razor
Invoker
InvokerDstones
52% · 97 games56% · 94 games
BeastmasterSrf
Beastmaster
Weaver
WeaverSon GoKu
38% · 159 games50% · 61 game
Spirit BreakerPyw
Spirit Breaker
Disruptor
DisruptorXCJ
46% · 103 games54% · 167 games
BaneDy
Bane
Game 2prediction correct14:34
Sparking Arrow Gaming 45%Xtreme Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 44:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkMS
60% · 41 game48% · 126 games
UrsaAnother
Ursa
Tidehunter
TidehunterFlyby
54% · 190 games42% · 95 games
Queen of PainPaparazi
Queen of Pain
Puck
PuckDstones
49% · 240 games52% · 62 games
Spirit BreakerPyw
Spirit Breaker
Windranger
WindrangerSon GoKu
58% · 82 games40% · 133 games
TimbersawSrf
Timbersaw
Bane
BaneXCJ
55% · 101 game47% · 238 games
GrimstrokeDy
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 60%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2