Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavawin 2:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SG e-sportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lava
No games played over 6 months.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
361 picks · 530 bans
Snapfire
321 picks · 193 bans
Bane
316 picks · 249 bans
Weaver
301 picks · 677 bans
Monkey King
262 picks · 753 bans
Tidehunter
250 picks · 401 bans
Disruptor
231 picks · 150 bans
Ember Spirit
230 picks · 316 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 21%
Hero pool strength50% Lava
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% SG e-sports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:33
Lava 40%SG e-sports 60%
The model gave 60% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 34:23.
Game 2prediction correct33:46
Lava 40%SG e-sports 60%
The model gave 60% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 47:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteSG e-sports · 60%
Series resultLava 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2