OGA Dota PIT EU/CIS Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Team Liquid
Razoroften banned
qojqva · 8 games
Marsoften banned
Boxi · 7 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
qojqva · 6 games
Leshracoften banned
miCKe · 5 games
Linaoften banned
Taiga · 5 games
Slardaroften banned
Boxi · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
qojqva · 5 games
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
361 picks · 529 bans
Snapfire
321 picks · 192 bans
Bane
314 picks · 249 bans
Weaver
301 picks · 675 bans
Monkey King
261 picks · 753 bans
Tidehunter
250 picks · 401 bans
Disruptor
231 picks · 150 bans
Ember Spirit
229 picks · 316 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total60% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:25
Alliance 40%Team Liquid 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 38:43.
Game 2prediction correct22:40
Alliance 40%Team Liquid 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 49:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 60%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2