OGA Dota PIT EU/CIS Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Gyrocopteroften banned
V-Tune · 4 games
Lion
ALOHADANCE · 4 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
RodjER · 4 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
SoNNeikO · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
V-Tune · 3 games
Puckoften banned
No[o]ne · 3 games
Sand Kingoften banned
GeneRaL · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
RAMZES666 · 3 games
Tundra Esports
Abaddonsignature
Fata · 14 games
Batridersignature
Nine · 13 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Fata · 13 games
Lunasignature
Skiter · 13 games
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 12 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Sneyking · 12 games
Tidehunteroften banned
33 · 12 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Skiter · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
362 picks · 526 bans
Snapfire
319 picks · 190 bans
Bane
311 picks · 248 bans
Weaver
299 picks · 675 bans
Monkey King
260 picks · 751 bans
Tidehunter
248 picks · 400 bans
Disruptor
231 picks · 150 bans
Ember Spirit
230 picks · 315 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 44%
Hero pool strength60% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:29
Natus Vincere 32%Tundra Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 43:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaV-Tune
Troll WarlordSkiter
Queen of PainNo[o]ne
Outworld DestroyerNine
PangolierGeneRaL
Tidehunter33
RubickSolo
IoSneyking
SnapfireALOHADANCE
BaneFata
Game 2prediction missed49:22
Natus Vincere 36%Tundra Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 57:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverV-Tune
Troll WarlordSkiter
PuckNo[o]ne
Void SpiritNine
Sand KingGeneRaL
Outworld Destroyer33
GrimstrokeALOHADANCE
IoSneyking
SilencerSolo
Ogre MagiFata
Game 3prediction correct11:47
Natus Vincere 33%Tundra Esports 67%
The model gave 67% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 43:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageV-Tune
BloodseekerSkiter
KunkkaNo[o]ne
PuckNine
Queen of PainGeneRaL
Dark Seer33
WeaverALOHADANCE
Nyx AssassinSneyking
LionSolo
BaneFata
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 78%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3