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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Omega Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Inverseloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Omega Gaming

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Demon · 3 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Demon · 3 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
ShakaLord · 3 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Tano · 3 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Mingatte · 2 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Lissex · 2 games
50%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Mingatte · 2 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Mingatte · 2 games
50%

Inverse

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
ArzenT · 2 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Migi · 2 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
MonHty · 2 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Migi · 2 games
50%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Adrx · 2 games
50%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
MonHty · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
ArzenT · 1 game
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Slaw · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
360 picks · 524 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
319 picks · 187 bans
47%
Bane
Bane
310 picks · 247 bans
58%
Weaver
Weaver
298 picks · 672 bans
55%
Monkey King
Monkey King
260 picks · 749 bans
58%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
248 picks · 399 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
230 picks · 313 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
228 picks · 149 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Inverse
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Omega Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:26
Omega Gaming 51%Inverse 49%
The model gave 51% on Omega Gaming — the game was taken by Omega Gaming in 37:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaMingatte
47% · 108 games46% · 274 games
MarsMigi
Mars
Dark Seer
Dark SeerLissex
51% · 96 games55% · 63 games
AxeArzenT
Axe
Batrider
BatriderTano
52% · 116 games49% · 141 game
TuskMonHty
Tusk
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritDemon
46% · 205 games55% · 89 games
DisruptorSlaw
Disruptor
Silencer
SilencerCHAAANNN
48% · 42 games
Game 2prediction correct21:13
Omega Gaming 50%Inverse 50%
The model gave 50% on Omega Gaming — the game was taken by Omega Gaming in 22:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMingatte
56% · 115 games45% · 143 games
Death ProphetArzenT
Death Prophet
Lina
LinaTano
58% · 147 games52% · 108 games
BatriderMigi
Batrider
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerLissex
50% · 34 games46% · 114 games
Earth SpiritMonHty
Earth Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkDemon
54% · 86 games39% · 104 games
GyrocopterSlaw
Gyrocopter
Disruptor
DisruptorCHAAANNN
53% · 87 games
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Gaming · 52%
Series resultOmega Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2