Lilgun vs Army Geniuses — prediction DPC2—Ю · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3

result vs prediction

Lilgunwin 2:1

series probability

59%41%

probability at match start · final 2:1

Army Geniusesloss 1:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lilgun

No games played over 6 months.

Army Geniuses

Mirana

Lym- · 13 games

31%

Pangolieroften banned

Lym- · 13 games

46%

Earth Spirit

Lym- · 12 games

33%

Tidehunteroften banned

woMy · 11 games

27%

Marsoften banned

woMy · 9 games

Dragon Knight

MamangDaya · 8 games

13%

Terrorbladeoften banned

db- · 8 games

13%

Timbersawoften banned

woMy · 8 games

38%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Mars

352 picks · 519 bans

50%

Snapfire

314 picks · 185 bans

47%

Bane

307 picks · 247 bans

58%

Weaver

298 picks · 661 bans

56%

Monkey King

258 picks · 743 bans

58%

Tidehunter

252 picks · 399 bans

46%

Ember Spirit

229 picks · 309 bans

57%

Disruptor

226 picks · 147 bans

52%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)44% vs 30%

Hero pool strength59% Lilgun

Head-to-head2 – 3

Model total59% Lilgun

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed34:21

Lilgun 59%Army Geniuses 41%

The model gave 59% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 47:07.

Game 2prediction missed11:25

Lilgun 59%Army Geniuses 41%

The model gave 59% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 31:38.

Game 3prediction missed28:43

Lilgun 59%Army Geniuses 41%

The model gave 59% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 49:41.

Model check result

Model favoriteLilgun · 59%

Series resultLilgun 2:1

Series predictioncorrect

Accuracy by game0 of 3