Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
CIS Rejectswin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CIS Rejects
No games played over 6 months.
Nemiga Gaming
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 29 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 28 games
Dark Willow
Heaven · 21 game
Hoodwink
Heaven · 20 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Lodine · 20 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 19 games
Abaddon
Lodine · 17 games
Batrideroften banned
Ainkrad · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
349 picks · 516 bans
Snapfire
315 picks · 179 bans
Bane
303 picks · 245 bans
Weaver
296 picks · 653 bans
Monkey King
259 picks · 737 bans
Tidehunter
254 picks · 398 bans
Ember Spirit
230 picks · 310 bans
Disruptor
225 picks · 147 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 39%
Hero pool strength51% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% CIS Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:25
CIS Rejects 65%Nemiga Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 1:03:33.
Game 2prediction missed25:10
CIS Rejects 65%Nemiga Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 32:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteCIS Rejects · 65%
Series resultCIS Rejects 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2