Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Razoroften banned
qojqva · 8 games
Marsoften banned
Boxi · 7 games
Leshracoften banned
miCKe · 6 games
Slardaroften banned
Boxi · 5 games
Snapfire
iNSaNiA · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
qojqva · 5 games
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 4 games
Iooften banned
Boxi · 4 games
Tundra Esports
Abaddonsignature
Fata · 14 games
Batridersignature
Nine · 13 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Fata · 13 games
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 12 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Sneyking · 12 games
Tidehunteroften banned
33 · 12 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Skiter · 11 games
Lunasignature
Skiter · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
350 picks · 515 bans
Snapfire
315 picks · 178 bans
Bane
302 picks · 241 bans
Weaver
294 picks · 651 bans
Monkey King
258 picks · 733 bans
Tidehunter
254 picks · 399 bans
Ember Spirit
232 picks · 309 bans
Disruptor
224 picks · 146 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength62% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total67% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:30
Team Liquid 41%Tundra Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainmiCKe
HoodwinkNine
Monkey KingMATUMBAMAN
LunaSkiter
Enigmazai
Visage33
Spirit BreakerBoxi
ClockwerkSneyking
RubickiNSaNiA
Shadow DemonFata
Game 2prediction missed33:15
Team Liquid 40%Tundra Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkaMATUMBAMAN
Queen of PainNine
LinamiCKe
LunaSkiter
Outworld Destroyerzai
Visage33
Monkey KingBoxi
Spirit BreakerSneyking
OracleiNSaNiA
HoodwinkFata
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 67%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2