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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 1:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
X3win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 27 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ghostik · 25 games
44%
Lina
Linaoften banned
kiyotaka · 21 game
57%
Bane
Bane
Kaori · 17 games
47%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
lightless · 16 games
50%
Luna
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 16 games
69%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
VANSKOR · 14 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 14 games
71%

X3

Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 5 games
40%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
33%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Antares · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 3 games
33%
Bane
Bane
Kidaro · 2 games
0%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 2 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Kidaro · 2 games
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Kidaro · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
350 picks · 515 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
315 picks · 178 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
301 picks · 239 bans
58%
Weaver
Weaver
292 picks · 650 bans
56%
Monkey King
Monkey King
258 picks · 731 bans
58%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
254 picks · 397 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
231 picks · 309 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
224 picks · 146 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:8
Team Empire 54%X3 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 25:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painlightless
47% · 64 games45% · 60 games
Phantom AssassinDarkLord^
Phantom Assassin
Kunkka
KunkkaShisui
44% · 68 games48% · 184 games
PuckNattyNarwhal
Puck
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerGhostik
56% · 47 games58% · 48 games
WindrangerAntares
Windranger
Chen
ChenKaori
58% · 27 games51% · 49 games
Shadow DemonKidaro
Shadow Demon
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman[T]SA
51% · 135 games
Game 2prediction missed49:52
Team Empire 55%X3 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Empire — the game was taken by X3 in 55:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerGhostik
48% · 66 games49% · 85 games
Phantom LancerDarkLord^
Phantom Lancer
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerlightless
52% · 69 games46% · 42 games
Outworld DestroyerNattyNarwhal
Outworld Destroyer
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritShisui
52% · 104 games46% · 317 games
LionAntares
Lion
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin[T]SA
55% · 172 games48% · 39 games
SilencerKidaro
Silencer
Weaver
WeaverKaori
55% · 72 games
Game 3prediction missed17:41
Team Empire 52%X3 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Empire — the game was taken by X3 in 37:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladelightless
50% · 63 games61% · 19 games
TinkerNattyNarwhal
Tinker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritShisui
43% · 75 games51% · 93 games
Faceless VoidDarkLord^
Faceless Void
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderGhostik
38% · 24 games49% · 36 games
Skywrath MageAntares
Skywrath Mage
Weaver
WeaverKaori
50% · 42 games49% · 84 games
Winter WyvernKidaro
Winter Wyvern
Bane
Bane[T]SA
66% · 28 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 56%
Series resultX3 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3