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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
X3loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 29 games
38%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 28 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 21 game
38%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 20 games
45%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Lodine · 20 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 19 games
53%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Lodine · 17 games
53%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ainkrad · 17 games
47%

X3

Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 4 games
50%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
33%
Bane
Bane
Kidaro · 2 games
0%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 2 games
50%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Antares · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 2 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Kidaro · 1 game
100%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
DarkLord^ · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 511 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
312 picks · 177 bans
47%
Bane
Bane
300 picks · 236 bans
58%
Weaver
Weaver
290 picks · 648 bans
56%
Monkey King
Monkey King
258 picks · 730 bans
58%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
254 picks · 396 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
230 picks · 308 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
226 picks · 144 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct51:19
Nemiga Gaming 61%X3 39%
The model gave 61% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 40:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckAinkrad
56% · 260 games45% · 140 games
LunaDarkLord^
Luna
Razor
RazorKiritych
58% · 67 games38% · 167 games
Dragon KnightNattyNarwhal
Dragon Knight
Death Prophet
Death ProphetTheChosenOne
62% · 128 games39% · 152 games
RubickAntares
Rubick
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerHeaven
58% · 49 games44% · 180 games
WeaverKidaro
Weaver
Bane
BaneVANSKOR
59% · 135 games
Game 2prediction correct38:12
Nemiga Gaming 57%X3 43%
The model gave 57% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 30:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightKiritych
37% · 27 games56% · 121 game
MedusaDarkLord^
Medusa
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainTheChosenOne
46% · 82 games47% · 70 games
Outworld DestroyerNattyNarwhal
Outworld Destroyer
Puck
PuckAinkrad
56% · 218 games50% · 86 games
RazorAntares
Razor
Visage
VisageVANSKOR
little data54% · 172 games
GrimstrokeKidaro
Grimstroke
Monkey King
Monkey KingHeaven
48% · 122 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 66%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2