Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Hoodwinksignature
Topson · 11 games
Elder Titansignature
Saksa · 8 games
Invokeroften banned
Topson · 8 games
Magnusoften banned
Ceb · 8 games
Snapfire
Saksa · 8 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Topson · 8 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
n0tail · 7 games
Clockwerk
Saksa · 7 games
Nigma Galaxy
Lunaoften banned
iLTW · 8 games
Phoenixoften banned
KuroKy · 7 games
Iooften banned
GH · 6 games
Marsoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
Terrorbladesignature
iLTW · 6 games
Linaoften banned
Miracle- · 5 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Miracle- · 5 games
Timbersawoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
349 picks · 511 bans
Snapfire
311 picks · 177 bans
Bane
299 picks · 238 bans
Weaver
289 picks · 648 bans
Monkey King
257 picks · 730 bans
Tidehunter
254 picks · 396 bans
Ember Spirit
230 picks · 307 bans
Disruptor
226 picks · 144 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% OG
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total50% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:13
OG 50%Nigma Galaxy 50%
The model gave 50% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 41:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorYuragi
PuckMiracle-
Void Spiritbzm
SlarkiLTW
Centaur WarrunnerATF
DoomMinD_ContRoL
SnapfireTaiga
BaneGH
Shadow DemonMisha
LionKuroKy
Game 2prediction correct37:12
OG 53%Nigma Galaxy 47%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 31:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkkabzm
LunaiLTW
WeaverYuragi
ViperMinD_ContRoL
RazorATF
Storm SpiritMiracle-
Nyx AssassinTaiga
IoGH
JakiroMisha
Monkey KingKuroKy
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 50%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2