Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
CIS Rejectswin 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
V-Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CIS Rejects
No games played over 6 months.
V-Gaming
Linasignature
hAze · 37 games
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 34 games
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 26 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 25 games
Invokeroften banned
hAze · 24 games
Disruptor
Malady · 22 games
Marssignature
laise · 20 games
Batridersignature
hAze · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
349 picks · 510 bans
Snapfire
311 picks · 177 bans
Bane
300 picks · 236 bans
Weaver
290 picks · 647 bans
Monkey King
256 picks · 732 bans
Tidehunter
255 picks · 398 bans
Ember Spirit
229 picks · 310 bans
Disruptor
225 picks · 144 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 64%
Hero pool strength59% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:21
CIS Rejects 45%V-Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 29:55.
Game 2prediction correct4:21
CIS Rejects 45%V-Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 21:27.
Game 3prediction correct36:23
CIS Rejects 45%V-Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 43:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 55%
Series resultCIS Rejects 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3