Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliancewin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Spider Pigzsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Spider Pigzs
Hoodwink
LeBronDota · 22 games
Lion
OmaR · 18 games
Lunaoften banned
lil pleb · 18 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 17 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
lightless · 14 games
Snapfire
No!ob · 12 games
Void Spiritoften banned
No!ob · 12 games
Abaddon
LeBronDota · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
348 picks · 510 bans
Snapfire
310 picks · 177 bans
Bane
300 picks · 235 bans
Weaver
290 picks · 645 bans
Monkey King
256 picks · 731 bans
Tidehunter
255 picks · 397 bans
Ember Spirit
229 picks · 310 bans
Disruptor
224 picks · 144 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)24% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Alliance
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:11
Alliance 61%Spider Pigzs 39%
The model gave 61% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 29:26.
Game 2prediction correct37:12
Alliance 61%Spider Pigzs 39%
The model gave 61% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 31:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 61%
Series resultAlliance 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2