Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Ghost frogswin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
No Bounty Hunterloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ghost frogs
Dragon Knight
Tobi · 2 games
Mirana
MiLAN · 2 games
Snapfire
Nukkumatti · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mastermind · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ulnit · 2 games
Treant Protector
j4 · 2 games
Abaddon
j4 · 1 game
Bane
j4 · 1 game
No Bounty Hunter
Grimstroke
Nikolica · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Flash · 2 games
Dark Seeroften banned
BliNcc · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Yellow Flash · 2 games
Lycanoften banned
Lowskill · 2 games
Marsoften banned
BliNcc · 2 games
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 2 games
Snapfire
dEsire · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
345 picks · 509 bans
Snapfire
310 picks · 175 bans
Bane
298 picks · 235 bans
Weaver
288 picks · 640 bans
Monkey King
257 picks · 730 bans
Tidehunter
256 picks · 396 bans
Ember Spirit
228 picks · 309 bans
Disruptor
222 picks · 143 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% No Bounty Hunter
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% Ghost frogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:18
Ghost frogs 51%No Bounty Hunter 49%
The model gave 51% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by Ghost frogs in 34:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainMastermind
PuckYellow Flash
Chaos KnightUlnit
Wraith KingkAAN
Spirit BreakerNukkumatti
BloodseekerBliNcc
Disruptorj4
IoFlash
UnderlordOwnedMe
LionNikolica
Game 2prediction correct43:23
Ghost frogs 50%No Bounty Hunter 50%
The model gave 50% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by Ghost frogs in 43:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightUlnit
Phantom LancerkAAN
Storm SpiritMastermind
Shadow FiendYellow Flash
BeastmasterOwnedMe
MarsBliNcc
Grimstrokej4
WeaverNikolica
Spirit BreakerNukkumatti
BaneFlash
Model check result
Model favoriteGhost frogs · 55%
Series resultGhost frogs 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2