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OGA Dota PIT EU/CIS Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Alliance

No games played over 6 months.

Nigma Galaxy

Luna
Lunaoften banned
iLTW · 8 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
KuroKy · 7 games
43%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 6 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
iLTW · 6 games
67%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Miracle- · 5 games
20%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Miracle- · 5 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
344 picks · 499 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
303 picks · 171 bans
47%
Bane
Bane
292 picks · 231 bans
58%
Weaver
Weaver
280 picks · 633 bans
58%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
256 picks · 391 bans
45%
Monkey King
Monkey King
255 picks · 728 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
225 picks · 306 bans
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
221 picks · 140 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total51% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:34
Alliance 49%Nigma Galaxy 51%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 52:29.
Game 2prediction missed45:22
Alliance 49%Nigma Galaxy 51%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Alliance in 42:36.
Game 3prediction correct15:31
Alliance 49%Nigma Galaxy 51%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 30:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 51%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3