Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
IVYloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 18 games
Banesignature
Zayac · 13 games
Chensignature
Zayac · 11 games
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 10 games
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 10 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Askold · 10 games
Lionsignature
Zayac · 10 games
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 10 games
IVY
Marsoften banned
TheBloodySky · 6 games
Medusaoften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 4 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Lowskill · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Copy · 3 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
TheBloodySky · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
Copy · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Copy · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
345 picks · 495 bans
Snapfire
303 picks · 169 bans
Bane
291 picks · 229 bans
Weaver
277 picks · 631 bans
Tidehunter
255 picks · 390 bans
Monkey King
253 picks · 726 bans
Ember Spirit
225 picks · 307 bans
Disruptor
221 picks · 139 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 43%
Hero pool strength65% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:20
Hydra 69%IVY 31%
The model gave 69% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 37:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenKami
LifestealerLowskill
PuckAskold
Monkey KingCopy
LycanBlizzy
Outworld DestroyerTheBloodySky
WeaverMuka
Spirit BreakerjAMES
GrimstrokeZayac
Game 2prediction correct35:10
Hydra 74%IVY 26%
The model gave 74% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 26:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerKami
KunkkaLowskill
BatriderAskold
TinkerCopy
BeastmasterBlizzy
PangolierTheBloodySky
WeaverMuka
MiranajAMES
DisruptorZayac
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 85%
Series resultHydra 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2