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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:1
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
InterActive Philippinesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 17 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Meracle · 12 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
inYourdreaM · 10 games
80%
Puck
Puckoften banned
AlaCrity · 10 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Poloson · 8 games
88%
Tiny
Tinysignature
AlaCrity · 8 games
63%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 8 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
inYourdreaM · 7 games
71%

InterActive Philippines

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Kim0 · 6 games
33%
Lion
Lion
Matt · 5 games
60%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Luciano · 4 games
25%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Marb · 4 games
50%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Matt · 4 games
25%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nishababy · 3 games
67%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Nishababy · 3 games
0%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Marb · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
342 picks · 494 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
301 picks · 169 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
290 picks · 226 bans
58%
Weaver
Weaver
276 picks · 627 bans
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
255 picks · 389 bans
46%
Monkey King
Monkey King
250 picks · 726 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
223 picks · 304 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
219 picks · 139 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 42%
Hero pool strength61% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:25
Nigma Galaxy SEA 80%InterActive Philippines 20%
The model gave 80% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by InterActive Philippines in 38:25.
Game 2prediction missed8:38
Nigma Galaxy SEA 80%InterActive Philippines 20%
The model gave 80% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by InterActive Philippines in 28:26.
Game 3prediction missed18:45
Nigma Galaxy SEA 80%InterActive Philippines 20%
The model gave 80% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by InterActive Philippines in 42:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 80%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3