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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aster.Aries

Doom
Doomsignature
生死 · 8 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 8 games
50%
Lion
Lion
TK · 7 games
43%
Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 7 games
57%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
生死 · 6 games
33%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Fantasy · 6 games
33%
Io
Iooften banned
TK · 5 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
40%

Xtreme Gaming

Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pyw · 3 games
100%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Paparazi · 3 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 3 games
67%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Another · 3 games
67%
Bane
Bane
Dy · 2 games
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Srf · 2 games
100%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Srf · 2 games
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Srf · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
340 picks · 494 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
301 picks · 168 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
290 picks · 224 bans
58%
Weaver
Weaver
276 picks · 622 bans
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
255 picks · 389 bans
46%
Monkey King
Monkey King
249 picks · 724 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
223 picks · 304 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
218 picks · 138 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 63%
Hero pool strength59% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total54% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:23
Aster.Aries 47%Xtreme Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 44:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorUlu
57% · 112 games42% · 86 games
Queen of PainPaparazi
Queen of Pain
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyerphoenix
56% · 70 games39% · 86 games
UrsaAnother
Ursa
Timbersaw
Timbersaw生死
53% · 217 games45% · 235 games
MarsSrf
Mars
Windranger
WindrangerTK
61% · 86 games52% · 115 games
MiranaPyw
Mirana
Disruptor
DisruptorRedPanda
55% · 133 games41% · 96 games
EnchantressDy
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct9:27
Aster.Aries 50%Xtreme Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 32:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerUlu
52% · 110 games40% · 107 games
LunaAnother
Luna
Death Prophet
Death Prophetphoenix
57% · 222 games54% · 154 games
LinaPaparazi
Lina
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight生死
52% · 29 games50% · 288 games
MarsSrf
Mars
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorRedPanda
54% · 96 games46% · 94 games
Shadow ShamanPyw
Shadow Shaman
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeTK
45% · 233 games53% · 47 games
UndyingDy
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 54%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2