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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltloss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Electronic Boyswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Felt

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Zore · 5 games
40%
Bane
Bane
Steelborco · 2 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Steelborco · 2 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
solji · 2 games
0%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
solji · 2 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Zore · 2 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
solji · 1 game
100%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Steelborco · 1 game
0%

Electronic Boys

Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
albinozebra · 4 games
25%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Speeed · 4 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
b1kA · 2 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Speeed · 2 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
b1kA · 2 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Oklahoma · 2 games
50%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
albinozebra · 2 games
50%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
murd0c · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
335 picks · 490 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
296 picks · 168 bans
47%
Bane
Bane
285 picks · 224 bans
58%
Weaver
Weaver
276 picks · 614 bans
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
254 picks · 386 bans
45%
Monkey King
Monkey King
249 picks · 720 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
222 picks · 300 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
217 picks · 137 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Felt
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total54% Felt
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:23
Felt 52%Electronic Boys 48%
The model gave 52% on Felt — the game was taken by Felt in 36:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsolji
48% · 76 games39% · 14 games
Chaos Knightmurd0c
Chaos Knight
Morphling
MorphlingKom4rt
41% · 94 games53% · 144 games
InvokerOklahoma
Invoker
Kunkka
KunkkaZore
53% · 92 games48% · 109 games
Iob1kA
Io
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionSteelborco
52% · 73 games59% · 68 games
Banealbinozebra
Bane
Game 2prediction missed37:45
Felt 53%Electronic Boys 47%
The model gave 53% on Felt — the game was taken by Electronic Boys in 43:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaKom4rt
57% · 67 games44% · 34 games
Shadow Fiendmurd0c
Shadow Fiend
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyersolji
48% · 35 games46% · 89 games
Storm SpiritOklahoma
Storm Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawZore
52% · 109 games47% · 116 games
Grimstrokealbinozebra
Grimstroke
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionSteelborco
61% · 107 games43% · 79 games
Clockwerkb1kA
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed20:37
Felt 56%Electronic Boys 44%
The model gave 56% on Felt — the game was taken by Electronic Boys in 37:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerKom4rt
54% · 65 games44% · 63 games
Svenmurd0c
Sven
Batrider
Batridersolji
56% · 99 games47% · 208 games
PangolierOklahoma
Pangolier
Mars
MarsZore
57% · 310 games40% · 159 games
Grimstrokealbinozebra
Grimstroke
Bane
BaneSteelborco
60% · 94 games43% · 138 games
Tuskb1kA
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteFelt · 54%
Series resultElectronic Boys 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3